A 2019-style Bitcoin fakeout is unlikely as BTC shows healthy long-term indicators, says top analyst
A prominent Bitcoin (BTC) trader predicts that the cryptocurrency will not experience a fake rally like 2019 in the current market cycle.
The pseudonymous trader Dave the Wave shares with his 140,000 followers on the social media platform
The “Buy Zone” is the trader’s own version of logarithmic growth curves (LGC), which aims to represent the ups and downs of Bitcoin’s long-term market cycles while filtering out short-term volatility and disruptions.
However, the trader says Bitcoin has already spent more than a year in the “buy zone” this cycle, setting the stage for a sustained bull rally.
He also bases his thesis on the monthly moving average convergence divergence (MACD), a momentum indicator that can signal an asset’s trend reversal.
“Those who have been following me for a while may remember that I referred to the BTC peak rise in 2019 as a ‘mini bubble.’” This was based on the LGC model, where the price moves too quickly/parabolically moved out of the buy zone.
Nothing like that this time. Even if prices fall a little more in the short term, the weekly MACD is [a lagging indicator] suggests a risk-controlled purchase to the investor.”
Source: Dave the Wave/X
Looking at his chart, the trader expects BTC to remain in bearish territory, but as the MACD line approaches the zero line from above, a bullish reversal could soon occur.
The trader also says that the LGC model is proving to be a reliable indicator of BTC price trends.
“So far, the LGC model built since 2018 could not have performed better, both in predicting the price range… and in predicting the best time to buy.” This statement is undeniable… based on prediction and performance.”
The trader had previously predicted that Bitcoin would witness a bull rally in 2024.
Bitcoin is trading for $26,413 at the time of writing, up 0.8% in the last 24 hours.
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