A closely-watched crypto strategist looks at Bitcoin’s past bear markets to predict the end of BTC’s current downtrend.
Pseudonymous analyst Rager tells his 207,500 Twitter followers that the length of Bitcoin’s 2014 and 2018 bear cycles suggest BTC has a long way to go before it can bottom.
“The more you look at past BTC price action, the more you can think it’s not the bottom. After 190 days from the all-time high, Bitcoin still had another 150-200 days to bottom (red box) in the last few cycles. If time is any indicator, it could be another six to eight months.”
Source: Rager/Twitter
Regarding the price, Rager says he’s keeping an eye on the 200-week moving average (MA) that kept Bitcoin afloat during the 2014 and 2018 downtrends.
“If bitcoin price falls and bounces back up at the 200 week ma like previous bear markets – consider that a good thing.
It would only be a -68% drop from the highs. Previous bear markets have had -84%+ pullbacks.
-84% pullback in this bear market would be almost $11,000 for BTC.”
Rager believes that in the short term it will continue to reflect strength or weakness in the US stock market.
“Kind of a waste of time staring at the BTC chart when you should only be looking at the SPX chart.
Clear rejection, good times.
As always, expect a choppy weekend for Bitcoin with limited upside (fakeouts) until stocks reverse.”
Bitcoin is changing hands for $29,325 at the time of writing.
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