Ahead of Halving, Bearish Trend in Crypto Mass Sentiment Suggests Bitcoin (BTC) Price Surge Is Coming

“The masses are always wrong. Wisdom means doing everything that the crowd does not do,” said American poet and writer Charles Bukowski.

This also applies to crypto, and the crypto crowd is starting to turn bearish on Bitcoin (BTC) – a sign that the current BTC price sell-off may soon run out of steam.

“Historically, prices are moving in the opposite direction to mass traders’ expectations,” blockchain analytics platform Santiment said in a market insights post, adding that the market is close to or shortly before the halving – expected in the next two days could then reach the bottom.

Data collected by Santiment shows that the number of “bull market” or “bull cycle” mentions on social media for cryptocurrencies has decreased since the end of March. At the same time, the number of mentions of “bear market” or “bear cycle” steadily increased.

Santiment's Social Trends Indicator tracks conversations across Telegram, Reddit, X, and 4Chan to identify keywords or topics that have sparked interest.

“According to the crypto crowd, the #bull market has essentially come to an end after #Bitcoin's market value fell -16% since reaching the #AllTimeHigh of $73,600 on March 14th. At the same time, mentions of #bear markets are increasing,” Santiment said.

The number of mentions of other keywords like “buy the dip” also suggests that “hopium” – crypto slang for hope for a quick recovery and sustained bull run – has faded among retail investors. Historically, there has been a decline in “Buy the Dip” mentions have marked the end of downtrends.

The fading likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, rising geopolitical tensions and the timing of US tax payments have weighed on Bitcoin this month, causing its price to fall 14%.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value hit lows below $60,000 yesterday but then recovered to trade at around $61,200 at press time. The CoinDesk 20 Index, which measures the performance of the 20 largest digital assets by market capitalization, is down 24% this month.

The Bitcoin blockchain will implement its fourth mining reward halving on Friday or early Saturday, reducing BTC issuance per block by 50% to 3,125 BTC. Several analysts, including JPMorgan, have warned of a deeper price drop after the quadrennial event, although the consensus is bullish in the long term.

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