Retail interest in the cryptocurrency market appears to be increasing after Bitcoin surged to $70,000 and above.
According to a tweet thread on Tuesday, Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of on-chain intelligence platform CryptoQuant, believes the crypto market is likely halfway to Bitcoin euphoria as half of retail customers have arrived.
Halfway to Bitcoin euphoria
Euphoria refers to a phase in the bull cycle when market participants indulge in greed and the Bitcoin rally overheats. During this time, retail speculative activity and crypto market enthusiasm peak, indicating the active participation of this group of investors.
Increased retail interest is often reflected in Google search trends for “Bitcoin” and a surge in crypto app downloads, as there is no specific indicator to monitor retail market participation. Analysts expect new retail investors joining the crypto market as it heats up will add to the momentum of the rally and push it to new highs.
Ju concluded that the market may be halfway to euphoria by observing several metrics including the BTC Unrealized Profit Ratio for retail cohorts, the total supply of BTC that has been inactive for a year, and the Number of withdrawal transactions on the Ethereum network.
The CryptoQuant founder admitted that on-chain retail activity, as metrics show, does not indicate a cyclical peak and that BTC is still in the price discovery phase.
How many private investors are here?
Ju's analysis was criticized by some market participants. Some believe that the BTC Unrealized Profit Ratio for Retail Cohorts chart is not an accurate measure of the percentage of retail cohorts that have arrived. They agreed with Ju's claims that the market is halfway to euphoria, but stressed that between 10 and 20% of retail participants are here.
“I can’t argue with that. It is difficult to say how “many” retail investors joined using this data. This is more similar to measuring the intensity of the retail cycle through retail activities in the chain,” Ju explained.
Meanwhile, Google searches and crypto app downloads show that retail is just getting on board. The former is at 53, halfway from the peak of 100 reached on May 21, while the latter has recovered slightly from the levels reported by CryptoPotato in December 2023. Coinbase has moved up to 13th place among consumer finance apps in Apple's App Store rankings.
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