Balaji Srinivasan ‘no backtracking’ on massive Bitcoin (BTC) bet as likelihood of US debt default rises
Balaji Srinivasan says he is not backing down from his bold claim that Bitcoin (BTC) will explode to $1,000,000 on the back of a US economic crisis.
In March, the former Coinbase manager placed a bet that Bitcoin would hit $1 million within three months, largely due to bankruptcy banks and hyperinflation.
He previously said that bank runs happen much faster today considering we live in a digital world.
“I think we see an exit from the US banking system towards Bitcoin over the next few weeks and months and maybe years.
The exact schedule of 90 days? You know, I don’t think it’s impossible considering how fast digital bankruns happen, but directional it’s a lot easier. The timing is difficult, the preparation is easy.”
While many have interpreted Srinivasan’s bet more as a statement or publicity stunt, he says he has no intention of reversing his decision.
“Trace nothing. I said 10% chance of a fiat crisis happening in months, 70% chance in years, 19% chance in decades, 1% chance in centuries. But 10% is very high and worth pointing out. Others also believe the probability of a sovereign default is at an all-time high.”
The bitcoin bull also points out that the probability of a U.S. national bankruptcy recently hit an all-time high, potentially boosting his side of the bet. He shares a chart showing the price of credit default swaps (CDS) on US one-year bonds, which has skyrocketed recently.
“Had to work out legal details but will be looking for a betting update soon.
Meanwhile, markets have also placed the probability of a US sovereign default at an all-time high. And that’s just a debt ceiling-driven explicit default. Does not include all debt monetization avenues.”
Source: Balaji Srinivasan/Twitter
Analysts at Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) have warned that the impact of a US default on its debt could be potentially catastrophic.
“The consequences of a potential US government default go beyond the immediate impact on bondholders. Both major market dislocations and a sharp slowdown in economic activity could be realistic possibilities.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $29,376, nearly 3,000% off Srinivasan’s $1 million call.
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