Big Bitcoin price swings are killing traders as ETF buyers battle profit-taking sellers – where is BTC headed next?

Last update:

March 15, 2024, 4:57 p.m. EDT | 2 minutes read

Bitcoin (BTC) price saw major swings on Friday, with hordes of traders on both the bullish and bearish sides clearing their positions as Bitcoin ETF buyers in the US continue to battle profit-taking sellers.

BTC started Friday's session above $71,000 before experiencing a sharp sell-off during Asian trading.

After falling as low as $65,500, Bitcoin price abruptly bounced back to $70,500 during US trading.

According to Coinglass.com, it was last trading at around $68,000, with $200 million worth of leveraged futures positions wiped out.

This was the toughest day for the bulls since March 4th. On that day, $244 million worth of long positions were taken.

Bitcoin has lost bullish momentum since hitting a new record high of around $74,000 on Thursday.

Despite the still high demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs, profit-takers appear to have taken control of the market.

Profits at absurd levels, on-chain analysis shows

According to CryptoCon, the 30-day moving average of a widely used on-chain metric called the realized profit/loss ratio is at an “absurd” level.

When #Bitcoin profits are high, investors have the opportunity to sell. ETF inflows do not change this.

The data shows us that we are at an absurd profit level, the highest since 2013 in the 30-day MA profit/loss ratio.

The first crossing of the 23-value line did not represent the peak in the… pic.twitter.com/2hjY1FIDwN

— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) March 15, 2024

CryptoCon wanted to point out that this does not necessarily mean that the market is about to peak.

But it suggests investors sitting on big gains are likely to “become anxious about selling.”

With current levels around $68,000, Bitcoin price has risen over 60% since the beginning of the year.

Massive spot Bitcoin ETF inflows were the main driver of the rally. And they have accelerated recently.

Weekly inflows this week were the largest since their launch in January, according to a JP Morgan research note.

❖ Weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows are largest since launch: JPMorgan

In a note on cryptocurrency markets, JPMorgan said inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reached their largest since launch this week.

The investment bank estimates preliminary net sales of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs at…

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 15, 2024

Therefore, it is no surprise that despite profit-taking and a 7.5% decline from highs, many remain confident that Bitcoin's outlook remains optimistic.

This is despite the fact that the cryptocurrency reached a new all-time value before its halving, which takes place every four years, and not after.

For the first time in history, Bitcoin reached an all-time high before the halving

We are experiencing a demand shock from the ETFs and next month we will be experiencing a supply shock 🚀 pic.twitter.com/VlSiLK0LTY

– Crypto Tea (@CryptoTea_) March 11, 2024

What's next for the Bitcoin price?

In previous Bitcoin bull markets, it was not uncommon for the price to fall by 30% from a local high.

It was only in January that the Bitcoin price fell from its annual high of around $49,000 to as low as $38,500.

This suggests that Bitcoin's recent decline may have legs. A retest of $50,000 is not out of the question based on historical comparisons.

But ETFs may have changed the game.

Large institutional investors entering the Bitcoin market for the first time, aware of the volatility but also the potential upside, are likely to be less price sensitive than previous cohorts of Bitcoin investors.

They are also likely to have a “buy the dip” mentality, which can help cushion BTC price declines.

Any BTC price declines may now struggle to go beyond 10-15%.

This suggests that $60,000 could be a short-term price floor.

Bitcoin price could fall to lows of $60,000 but then rise towards $100,000. Source: TradingView

$74,000 could easily be the pre-halving high. But that could set the stage for a breakout to new record levels later in the year and a challenge to $100,000.

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