Disclaimer: The results of the following analysis are the sole opinion of the author and should not be taken as investment advice
Bitcoin has posted losses of 16% in sixteen days. The market seems fearful again, especially since BTC has fallen below $40,000. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 20 at press time to denote extreme fear. Despite this, the market structure remains bullish on the higher time frame charts.
Bitcoin could be primed to push towards $52,000 in the coming weeks. In fact, data from Coinglass showed that nearly $440 million worth of positions, including $159 million in Bitcoin, were liquidated.
Bitcoin 1-day chart
Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView
Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since November when the price peaked at $69,000. A swing low was seen at $32.9K in mid-January. Since then, no deeper low has been set. Furthermore, the lower high of the downtrend at $44.5k in early February was beaten and BTC posted a higher low at $34k thereafter.
These developments indicated that Bitcoin’s downtrend was over. At press time, the market structure remained bullish. The cyan box at $38,000 represents a bullish order block, an area on the chart from which the price has seen bullish impulse movement.
In the next few days, it is possible for BTC to dip into this area and even seek liquidity as high as $37.5k before moving higher. As of today, BTC seems poised to move higher again, with $48,000 and $52,000 as strong resistance zones in the north.
Reason
Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView
The RSI has not indicated a sustained uptrend or downtrend for most of the last two months. Especially as the momentum oscillated around the neutral 50 line. Towards the end of March there was a strong upward movement. This has now turned into a sharp bearish rate as the RSI has fallen to 37.5.
The Awesome Oscillator also fell below the zero line. It has been flashing red bars on its histogram for the past few weeks to indicate rising bearish momentum.
The OBV, on the other hand, has been in an uptrend since mid-January. The lack of a significant drop in OBV over the past week shows that a move towards $37.5K would be a likely buy.
Conclusion
Despite the fear in the market, the technicals were looking pretty good for Bitcoin’s bulls. The price chart showed that the bullish structure of the last two months is still intact. Unless BTC falls below $37,000-$37.5,000, the bulls will have the upper hand.
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