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Originally posted here.
By: Stephan Fiedler
overview
If Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, has his way, the near future of Bitcoin (BTC) is predictable: In 2023, Bitcoin’s price curve will be predictable […]
The post
If Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, has his way, the near future of Bitcoin (BTC) is predictable: In 2023, the Bitcoin price curve will remain volatile; Hayes believes that a rally will begin in 2024.
The crypto year 2023 has been mixed for Bitcoin (BTC) so far: Although the price curve has risen from just over 16,000 US dollars per Bitcoin to currently around 27,000 US dollars since January 1, BTC is currently far from the values of over 60,000 US dollars -dollar away in boom year 2021. The former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, still sees the situation as relatively relaxed. As a guest star on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, Hayes shared insights into his price predictions. As such, Bitcoin is likely to continue trading near previous 2023 levels in the coming months, albeit with frequent fluctuations in the price curve.
Hayes expects a trend reversal at the end of 2023 at the earliest and with a high degree of probability in 2024. The man in his mid-thirties names the upcoming Bitcoin halving, which is expected to take place in April 2024, as a key date. Historically, bitcoin halvings, which have taken place about four years apart, have always marked the start of a rally a few months later, setting new all-time highs for BTC. Therefore, Hayes sees the $70,000 price mark as the level that Bitcoin must reach first before new prospects emerge. In 2024, Hayes believes, this barrier will be broken, and then in 2025/2026, Bitcoin will climb to unprecedented price levels.
Hayes also includes US monetary policy and macroeconomic developments in his forecasts. There are currently signs of an agreement in the debt dispute in Washington and it is foreseeable that the USA will continue to be lax about public finances. But Hayes also sees significant risks for a banking and financial crisis that could begin in late 2023. For Bitcoin, Hayes assumes that dwindling trust in banks is a plus. According to Hayes, citizens will privately provide for the future, considering Bitcoin as a suitable financial instrument.
Conclusion: Season for Bitcoin forecasts
Anyone who has invested in Bitcoin and Co. for a long time has experienced how difficult price forecasts are. In this regard, Hayes is just one voice among many. The analysts at JPMorgan, for example, recently announced a target of $45,000 per Bitcoin and justify this with parallels to the price of gold. Overall, cautiously optimistic forecasts for the BTC price curve currently seem to be in the majority and the hope for a price jump is based on the Bitcoin halving in 2024.
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