Bitcoin (BTC) edged out fresh U.S. macro data at Wall Street’s open on November 30 as traders focused on the month’s close.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
PCE maintains Fed pivot pressure
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action remaining within a narrow intraday range below $38,000.
After a failed breakout the previous day, hopes were high that the Federal Reserve’s “favored” inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, would fuel volatility.
However, this had not happened at the time of writing, as Wall Street’s final open is still to come in November.
PCE was broadly in line with expectations – a boost to the Fed’s monetary tightening and a reinforcement of falling inflation.
Still, when asked whether interest rates could now begin to fall – the key takeaway for risk assets – financial commentary source The Kobeissi Letter remained cautious.
“Another sign that inflation is falling, but still above the Fed’s 2 percent target. Can the Fed really turn around now?” There was a query on X (formerly Twitter) about the PCE results.
Kobeissi again referred to the words of Bill Ackman, founder and CEO of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, who earlier this week predicted interest rate cuts starting in the first quarter of 2024.
“It is important to note that the effects of monetary policy are delayed. But does the Fed really want to take the risk of reacting too early and cutting interest rates?” it continued.
“We believe the calls for interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2024 are too ambitious.”
Diagram showing the Fed’s target interest rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
PCE failed to dampen market expectations of Fed policy as data from CME Group’s FedWatch tool still shows near-unanimous expectations of a continuation of the pause on rate hikes next month.
BTC price rises almost 10% in November
However, the monthly close was of greater interest to Bitcoin market participants.
Related: Bitcoin ETF Will Drive 165% BTC Price Surge in 2024 – Standard Chartered
BTC/USD rose nearly 10% in November at the time of writing, making it the first “green” 11th month of the year since 2020. Above $37,660, the closing price would reach its highest level since May 2022.
According to data from statistics resource CoinGlass, Bitcoin fell by 7.1% and 16.2% in November 2021 and 2022, respectively.
BTC/USD Monthly Returns (Screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Analyzing the current chart setup, popular trader Jelle saw reasons for an uptrend in Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) values.
“After spending the last month building a huge hidden bullish divergence, Bitcoin has broken out of its RSI downtrend!” he told X subscribers earlier in the day.
An attached table showed the required area the cops needed to secure.
“If the price can hold the gray box, I think it will rise soon. All eyes are on the end of the month,” Jelle added.
BTC/USD chart with RSI. Source: Jelle/X
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading activity involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when making their decision.
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