Bitcoin Volatility Index hits 6-week low despite looming macro risk events – watch these key BTC price levels

Bitcoin. Source: Adobe

Derebit’s Bitcoin Volatility Index (DVOL) just fell to 52, its lowest level since March 8.

The drop to new 6-plus week lows comes despite Bitcoin price’s recent pullback from 10-month highs, which it hit above $31,000 last week.

BTC last changed hands mid-$27,000 amid a spate of major macro risk events over the coming two weeks.

This week, the first estimate of US GDP growth for the first quarter of this year will be released on Thursday and the Fed’s preferred monthly inflation gauge (the PCE Core report) on Friday.

Major US tech giants like Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Google are also set to report gains this week, which could also have a major impact on macro sentiment.

Monthly US ISM PMI surveys and jobs data, along with a Federal Reserve interest rate decision, will be released next week.

The Fed is expected to hike rates another 25 basis points from 4.75-5.0% to 5.0-4.25%, although money markets are currently implying that this will be the last rate hike of the cycle, with a rate-cutting cycle likely will start later year.

The drop in Bitcoin volatility expectations, illustrated by the decline in DVOL, suggests that traders/investors view the recent BTC price decline as more likely for Bitcoin to trade within recent ranges (i.e., the $25,000-$30,000 range) in the coming weeks ) will consolidate ).

Alternative measures of Bitcoin volatility expectations in the form of at-the-money (ATM) option price implied volatility are also hovering near recent lows.

But traders should not discount the risk that upcoming macro risk events can turn the market upside down.

Keep an eye on these BTC price levels

The $27,000 and $28,000 levels are the most immediate levels for traders to keep an eye and eye on as the week begins, as they mark recent daily highs and lows, with the 50-day moving average also at $27,120 lay.

On the other hand, the $26,500 area in March proved a key resistance-turned-support zone and could provide decent intraday support if Bitcoin retraces to those levels this week.

If the bears really take control, a test of the key long-term resistance in the $25,200-$400 range is imminent.

On the other hand, the $28,800-$29,300 area marks a series of highs from late March/early April and the 21-day moving average.

These levels could be combined with a recently broken uptrend from late March to offer solid intraday resistance if the bulls regain control.

A recent trading signal highlighted by Bloomberg, triggered in the middle of last week, suggests that a recovery back above $30,000 within the next few days is likely based on historical price action patterns.

More broadly, even if Bitcoin were to fall back to $25,000, it would be viewed by market participants as much more of a great buying opportunity than a disaster.

With numerous long-term on-chain indicators signaling a buy signal for Bitcoin and long-term market cycle analysis suggesting that the cryptocurrency is in the early stages of a bull market, long-term focused dip buyers are likely to keep BTC’s price supports for the foreseeable future.

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