There is an ongoing battle between buyers and sellers around the 100-day moving average.
The price is showing remarkably low volatility, indicating a state of indecision in the market. Price action within this crucial price range could potentially be indicative of future Bitcoin price action.
Technical Analysis
From Shayan
The daily chart
The daily chart shows a corrective move after the rejection at $30,000. This move is marked by a gradual pullback towards the 100-day moving average, which sits at $28.5,000. This level effectively acted as a strong support and prevented further declines for several months.
Currently, after a period of muted activity above the 100-day ma, the price has staged a slight recovery marked by a relatively large bullish candle. Nonetheless, there is still a possibility of a drop below the 100-day moving average, which could trigger a cascading effect towards the 200-day moving average. This level also coincides with the lower boundary of the multi-month channel, thus providing a strong barrier on Bitcoin’s downside path.
The 200-day ma is of great importance as it could potentially serve as support and halt further downside. However, if the price finds support at the 100-day ma, it could potentially trigger a rally towards the $30,000 resistance zone with a view to reclaiming it.
Source: TradingView
The 4 hour chart
On the 4-hour chart, the price appears to be floating in a static range, oscillating between the $30,000 resistance and $25,000 support. Still, BTC approached the critical Fibonacci retracement level of 0.382 and received support, leading to a slight bounce towards the minor resistance at $29,000.
A positive reaction in this region could pave the way for a fresh leg up and propel the price towards the significant resistance at $30,000.
However, if the price breaks below the range defined by the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels – a likely target during the ongoing correction phase – it could trigger a rapid drop towards the lower level of the range, around $25,000. to lead.
Source: TradingView
On-Chain Analysis
From Shayan
Bitcoin price has been on a strong uptrend since early 2023, which is causing optimism among market participants. The NUPL metric shown in the chart illustrates the difference between market cap and realized cap divided by market cap. It serves as a measure of the proportion of investors who are currently in a profitable position.
Readings above 0 indicate that investors are making profits and a growing trend shows that more and more investors are entering this profitable state. Given the recent bullishness in the NUPL metric, which has now reached its previous high from April, it suggests that a larger group of investors are currently enjoying returns. This is a notable signal of the prevailing bullish sentiment in the market.
Therefore, if the metric breaks above its previous high while the price continues to rise, it would trigger increased buying pressure and cement a clearly bullish market position.
Source: CryptoQuant
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