Key Findings:
- Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) saw red for the second straight day on Thursday.
- US economic indicators took a back seat, with FOMC members’ hawkish chatter weighing on the NASDAQ 100, BTC and ETH.
- However, technical indicators are sending mixed signals, with EMAs bullish for BTC and bearish for ETH.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell 0.97% on Thursday. After shedding 0.92% on Wednesday, BTC ended the day at $19,960. Notably, BTC ended the day below $20,000 for the first time in three sessions.
After an upbeat start to the day, BTC hit an early high of $20,455. Hitting the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,429, BTC fell to a late low of $19,866. However, BTC got within reach of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $19,816 and found support to end the day at $19,960.
Ethereum (ETH) slipped 0.07%. After a slight 0.66% drop on Wednesday, ETH ended the day at $1,352.
ETH tracked the broader market and surged to an early morning high of $1,384. ETH broke the first major resistance level (R1) at $1,373 before going into reverse. The reversal caused ETH to slip to a late low of $1,345. However, ETH stayed away from the first major support level (S1) at $1,325 and ended the day at $1,352.
US economic indicators had a muted price impact on BTC and ETH. Initial jobless claims rose to 219,000 from 190,000 in the last week of September. However, given today’s US nonfarm payrolls, markets brushed aside the weekly rise.
Fed chatter drew attention on Thursday as FMOC member Charles Evans made a big splash on interest rates. Towards the end of the US session, Evans told markets the Fed had 125 basis points left in the tank for the rest of the year. Based on the 125 basis point forecast, the federal funds rate would end the year at 4.5%.
As FOMC members chant the Fed’s mantra, today’s US jobs numbers could push forecasts higher. Economists forecast that the unemployment rate will remain steady at 3.7% and non-farm payrolls will increase by 250,000. Investors also need to keep an eye on the revisions to the August numbers.
A fall in the unemployment rate would likely weigh on riskier assets.
Bitcoin (BTC) price action
At the time of writing, BTC is up 0.13% to $19,986. On a mixed morning, BTC surged to an early high of $20,053 before falling to a low of $19,819.
BTCUSD 071022 daily chart
Technical indicators
BTC needs to move through the $20,094 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,321 and Thursday’s high of $20,455. A BTC move above $20,500 would signal a bullish session. However, US nonfarm payrolls must disappoint to support a breakout session.
In the event of an extended rally, BTC should test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $20,683 and resistance at $21,000. The third major resistance level (R3) is located at $21,272.
If the pivot is not breached, the first major support level (S1) at $19,732 would remain in play. Barring a prolonged selloff, BTC should avoid going below $19,500. The second major support level (S2) at $19,505 should limit the downside. However, impressive NFP numbers and hawkish rhetoric from the Fed would pressure BTC later in the day.
The third major support level (S3) is at $18,916.
BTCUSD 071022 hourly chart
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hour candlestick chart (below), this was a more bullish signal. Bitcoin was above the 200-day EMA this morning, currently at $19,930.
After the bullish cross of the 50-day EMA through the 100-day EMA, the 50-day EMA retreated from the 100-day EMA. The 100-day EMA narrowed to the 200-day EMA, providing bullish price signals.
Holding BTC above the 200-day EMA ($19,930) would support a breakout from R1 ($20,321) to target R2 ($20,683). However, a break through the 200-day EMA ($19,930) would give the bears a run to the 50-day EMA ($19,760) and S1 ($19,732).
BTCUSD 071022 4 hour chart
Ethereum (ETH) price action.
At the time of writing, ETH is up 0.52% to $1,359. On a mixed morning, ETH surged to an early high of $1,362 before falling to a low of $1,346.
ETHUSD 071022 daily chart
Technical indicators
ETH needs to move through the $1,360 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,376 and Thursday’s high of $1,384. Crypto-friendly US economic indicators and FOMC member chatter would support a breakout of R1 ($1,376).
In the event of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,399 and $1,400 would likely come into play. The third major resistance level (R3) is located at $1,438.
If the pivot is not breached, the first major support level (S1) at $1,337 would remain in play. Barring an extended US session sell-off, ETH should avoid below $1,300. The second major support level (S2) at $1,321 should limit the downside.
However, impressive job numbers from the US could send ETH slipping. The third major support level (S3) sits at $1,282.
ETHUSD 071022 hourly chart
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hour candlestick chart (below), this was a less bearish signal. Ethereum was at the 100-day EMA, currently at $1,360. The 50-day EMA closed at the 100-day EMA with the 100-day EMA tightening to the 200-day EMA providing bullish signals.
Holding ETH above the 100-day EMA ($1,360) would support a breakout of R1 ($1,376) to put R2 ($1,399) and $1,400 in sight. However, a break through the 100-day EMA ($1,360) and the 50-day EMA ($1,342) would give the bears a run below $1,300. The 200-day EMA stands at $1,420.
ETHUSD 071022 4 hour chart
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