Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, updates his long-term forecasts for Bitcoin (BTC) as the leading crypto-asset by market cap struggles around $30,000.
In a lengthy thread, Timmer references quantitative analyst PlanB’s once-popular stock-to-flow (S2F) model, which attempted to predict the price of Bitcoin based on supply shocks due to the BTC halving.
Timmer presents an S2F-inspired care model and two other models that track Internet and mobile phone adoption rates.
According to Timmer’s modified supply model, Bitcoin could be around $63,778 by 2025, about a year after the next BTC halving.
“The close-up below shows that this more modest supply model was (in hindsight) more accurate than the original S2F predictions for this halving cycle.”
Source: Jurrien Timmer/Twitter
Timmer says Bitcoin could explode in value due to mobile phone adoption, trading at $144,753 by 2025. But if Bitcoin follows the internet’s adoption rate, Timmer’s model suggests that BTC has peaked and could be trading at $47,702 in three years.
“Assuming the mobile phone curve is a more viable analog, its curve suggests a strong growth network for Bitcoin in the years to come, but the rather asymptomatic internet curve raises the possibility that Bitcoin’s growth curve may be more mature than my models Have accepted …
I remain bullish on Bitcoin as an emerging store of value in a world of ongoing financial repression, but the exercise above is a good reminder that we should always reconsider our assumptions, especially when price action differs from expectations.”
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