Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a tight range for the past few days, but that doesn’t diminish the shine of its impressive 84 percent rally in 2023. The sharp recovery in bitcoin price has fueled buying of several altcoins, which have risen sharply from their annual lows.
As we enter the second half of the year, the biggest question for any investor is: will the rally continue? Data from CoinGlass shows that July saw only three negative monthly closes since 2013, and the largest drop was 9.69% in 2014. This suggests that the bulls have a slight advantage.
Daily view of crypto market data. Source: Coin360
Much of the recent rally in bitcoin and altcoins has been fueled by hopes that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will approve one or more spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund applications. Any negative news on this front could dampen sentiment and lead to a sharp sell-off.
However, Bitcoin and selected altcoins are showing strength for the time being. Let’s analyze the charts of the top 5 cryptocurrencies that could continue their uptrend in the next few days.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin continues to trade near the strong overhead resistance at $31,000. This suggests that the bulls are in no hurry to book gains as they anticipate further increases.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Typically, a tight congestion resolves to the upside near a key overhead resistance. The rising 20-day exponential moving average ($29,278) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in positive territory are indicating that the path of least resistance is up.
If the bulls propel and sustain the price above $31,000, the BTC/USDT pair is likely to start the next leg of the uptrend. Upward momentum could catapult the price above the immediate resistance at $32,400. If that happens, the pair could resume its march north towards $40,000.
If the bears want to make a comeback, they need to lower the price and sustain below the 20-day EMA. The pair could then slide to the 50-day simple moving average ($27,622).
BTC/USDT 4 hour chart. Source: TradingView
Both the moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand. The price has been stuck between $31,431 and $29,500 for some time.
Buyers need to push the price above the $31,431 hurdle and hold it to signal the uptrend resume. Alternatively, a break and close below the $29,500 support could trigger a deeper correction towards $27,500.
Litecoin price analysis
Litecoin (LTC) surged above the descending channel and the overhead resistance of $106 on June 30, suggesting the uptrend resumes.
LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The bears pulled the price back below the $106 breakout level on July 1, but the bulls bought the decline. If buyers sustain the price above $106, the chances of the rally continuing will increase. The LTC/USDT pair could then scale to the upper resistance zone between $134 and $144.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price declines and sustains below $106, it would be a sign that the bears are selling at higher levels. This could pull the price to the psychological $100 level and then out of the channel to the breakout level.
LTC/USDT 4 hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows that the bears are vigorously trying to defend the $112 level, but they are struggling to sustain the price below $106. This suggests that the bulls are buying at lower levels. The rising 20-EMA and the RSI in the overbought territory suggest that buyers are ahead.
If the price stays above $112, the pair could start the next leg of the uptrend towards $126. The first support on the downside is the 20-EMA and then $98.
Monero price analysis
Monero (XMR) surged and closed above the downtrend line on June 23, invalidating the developing descending triangle pattern.
XMR/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The failure of a bearish pattern is typically a positive sign as it traps several aggressive bears, resulting in a short squeeze. This could be seen in the XMR/USDT pair, which rose from $150 on June 23rd to $171 on June 27th.
After the strong recovery, the price has been fluctuating between $171 and $160 for the past few days. The consolidation is a positive sign as it shows that the bulls are holding on to their positions as they anticipate further increases.
If buyers push the price above $171, the pair could start the next leg of the uptrend. The pair could then rally to $187. The bears need to sink the price back below the 50-day SMA ($149) to take control.
XMR/USDT 4 hour chart. Source: TradingView
The 4-hour chart shows a symmetrical triangle forming, which generally acts as a continuation pattern. If buyers push and sustain the price above the triangle, it suggests that the uncertainty between bulls and bears has dissipated in favor of buyers. This could signal the resumption of the uptrend. The pattern target of this setup is $182.
This positive view will be invalidated in the short-term if the price declines and falls below the triangle. The pair could then plummet to $148.
Related: Why Did Litecoin Price Rise Today?
Aave price analysis
Aave (AAVE) has been trading within a descending channel pattern for the past few weeks. The price turned down from the channel resistance line on June 25, but the bulls halted the correction at the 20-day EMA ($61.69).
AAVE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
This indicates a shift in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on downturns. The price has reached the resistance line again. Repeatedly retesting a resistance level within a short interval tends to weaken it.
The rising 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory suggest that the path of least resistance is up. If buyers propel the price above the channel and sustain, the AAVE/USDT pair could start a fresh uptrend towards $84.
The 20-day EMA remains the key support to watch on the downside. A break and close below this level suggests the pair may stay inside the channel longer.
AAVE/USDT 4 hour chart. Source: TradingView
Both the moving averages are showing upward movement on the 4-hour chart and the RSI is in positive territory, indicating that the buyers are in control. If the bulls convert the downtrend line into support, the pair could rally to $76.
Alternatively, if the price declines and stays below the downtrend line, it will signal that the bears remain active at higher levels. The pair could then drop to the moving averages. A break below the 50-SMA could open the door for a potential drop to $62 and then $58.
Manufacturer price analysis
Maker (MKR) is attempting to start an up move. The bulls bought the decline to the moving averages between June 24th and 28th, suggesting demand at lower levels.
MKR/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day EMA ($725) is up and the RSI is floating in the overbought territory, indicating that the bulls have the upper hand. Buyers pushed the price above the downtrend line on July 2nd, but the long wick on the candle shows strong selling at higher levels.
A small plus for buyers is that they held their ground. This increases the prospects for a recovery above the downtrend line. If that happens, the MKR/USDT pair could surge towards $979. The first sign of weakness will be a drop below $772. This could start a deeper correction towards the 20-day EMA.
MKR/USDT 4 hour chart. Source: TradingView
The pair closed above the downtrend line but the rally is offset by selling at higher levels. The bears are attempting to trap the aggressive bulls by pulling the price back below the downtrend line. If they do, the pair could drop to the 20-EMA. This remains the key level to watch out for, as a break below would shift the advantage in the bears’ favor.
On the other hand, if the price increases from the current levels and breaks the $900 level, it will indicate that the bulls have turned the downtrend line into a support line. That could trigger a rally to $941.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Any investment and trading venture involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making their decision.
This article is provided for general informational purposes and is not intended and should not be construed as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
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