Macro analyst Lyn Alden says the near-term outlook for Bitcoin (BTC) is very uncertain — here’s why

Macro guru Lyn Alden says a new economic variable is making it harder to predict Bitcoin (BTC) price over the next six months.

In a new interview on Kitco News, Alden says the near-term prospects for the flagship crypto are unclear due to stagflation, an economic phenomenon that occurs as a result of high inflation and high unemployment.

“In the next six months, very uncertain because historically, considering the rising and falling PMI [purchasing managers index] environments, most of Bitcoin’s bull run activity occurs during rising PMI environments. If you have favorable liquidity and risk-taking behavior, Bitcoin tends to do very well. Bitcoin has historically suffered in bearish PMI environments. What’s new is that Bitcoin has never really encountered a stagflationary environment in the major developed markets, so this is a whole new variable.”

Despite the uncertainty, the macro analyst says Bitcoin is still a better investment compared to other assets.

“I certainly prefer owning bitcoin to some of these companies that have a lot of supply chain exposure, margin pressures and things like that. We’ll see if it starts acting like a commodity.”

Alden says Bitcoin will stay because of its strong fundamentals.

“I’m more neutral for the next six months. I would expect volatility. Longer term I think the fundamental picture looks great. The development that is happening on it, the use cases for it might be clearer, especially now that people are fleeing Ukraine and once they start custodial bitcoin, they are having some of the easiest times when it comes to bringing wealth with the smallest of chores. ”

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