On-chain analyst Willy Woo updates the Bitcoin bear market outlook and says BTC can crash the fiat system at a certain price
Leading on-chain analyst Willy Woo makes a prediction of when the current Bitcoin (BTC) bear market could reverse course.
Woo shares with his one million Twitter followers that he believes the BTC bear market will be longer than 2018 but shorter than 2015.
“The main question I have is how long the accumulation zone of this cycle will be. Judging by all the explosions, it’s more like the Mt. Gox collapse in 2013 (remember that over 90% of BTC was traded there). I suspect it will be longer than 2018 but shorter than 2015.”
Woo shares a chart showing the cost basis of long-term holders (LTHs), those who have held bitcoin for at least 155 days, and short-term holders (STHs). Woo’s chart suggests that when the cost basis of STHs falls below the cost basis of LTHs, it coincides with a market bottom.
Source: Willy Woo/Twitter
Woo also comments on some of the more bullish Bitcoin predictions that put BTC at $1 million per coin, including those from ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood. Woo says if bitcoin hits $1 million, as Wood predicted, it could crash the fiat currency system.
“Bitcoin price above say $1 million per coin could be very unstable. (ARKInvest predicts $1 million per coin, among others.) At these equivalent capitalizations, BTC becomes a real challenger to fiat, so it’s a price range where fiat collapses.”
Woo says Bitcoin’s price surge towards $1 million will lead to a battle by governments trying to push BTC down to protect fiat currency dominance.
“Hence, the forces driving BTC pricing are going binary like breaking the sound barrier. There is increasing bearish pressure on BTC as it approaches fiat market caps while governments suppress it. If the barrier is broken, BTC will get bullish pressure and escape towards infinity.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is changing hands at $16,678.
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