Noted crypto trader Arthur Hayes sees the falling price of Bitcoin (BTC) as a “warning sign” following the launch of the Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) just two weeks ago.
He highlights the connection between Bitcoin reaching its recent peak and the 2-year US Treasury note hitting a local low this month of 4.14%, which is currently on a gradual rise.
Short-term Bitcoin price prediction by Arthur Hayes
In a recent blog post, Hayes debunks the common argument that the reason for Bitcoin's recent price decline lies in the outflows of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
“This argument is false because if you offset outflows from GBTC against inflows into the newly listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, the net inflow on January 22nd was $820 million.”
Meanwhile, BeInCrypto recently reported that Grayscale has seen more than $3.3 billion in outflows since spot Bitcoin ETF approval.
However, as an explanation for this investor sentiment, he points to the fact that the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) may not be extended.
The U.S. government created the BFTP as an initiative to ensure that banks have sufficient liquidity to meet the needs of businesses and households. This is particularly important when a significant volume of withdrawals occur within a short period of time.
Read more: Bitcoin price prediction 2024/2025/2030
The decision on the BTFP renewal is scheduled for March 12th. Hayes expects the price of Bitcoin to continue to decline until the decision is announced.
“A 30% correction from the ETF approval high of $48,000 is $33,600. Therefore, I believe Bitcoin has support between $30,000 and $35,000. For this reason, I purchased $35,000 worth of strike puts on March 29, 2024.”
However, he expects a trend reversal after the expected decision and expects the Bitcoin price to rise after the announcement.
“As SPX and NDX plunge due to a mini-financial crisis in March, Bitcoin will rise as it will lead the possible translation of interest rate cuts and money printing talks on behalf of the Fed into the action of pushing the Brrrr button.”
At the time of publication, the price of Bitcoin is $41,921.
Bitcoin price chart 1 month. Source: BeInCrypto
Long-Term Outlook by Arthur Hayes
Hayes confidently delivers concrete and optimistic predictions when it comes to Bitcoin.
In July 2023, BeInCrypto reported that Hayes predicted that falling interest rates, the cryptocurrency halving, and the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs would push Bitcoin to $70,000 by the end of 2024. Hayes said:
“Then the real fun begins. Then the real bull market begins.”
But Hayes' optimism extends further to 2026. In two years, he expects the Bitcoin price to reach a range of $750,000 to $1 million.
Read more: What is a Bitcoin ETF?
He's not the only one who has dismissed six-figure price predictions recently.
Analytics firm Messari predicts Bitcoin will reach $600,000 by the end of the year, while VanEck predicts $275,000 and ETC Group expects $100,000.
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